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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.