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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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